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Following on from my prediction that a Liberal victory in Victoria would spell trouble for Gillard:

And following on from my prediction that Gillard must find a new action plan for government:

And, to summarise the results for the Greens in the Victorian election:

It turns out the first preferences state-wide are almost identical to the first preferences state-wide in the last election. They did not win a single seat.

In the key lower house seats, the Greens improved on their prior performance but not by much.

In Melbourne, the seat the Greens were most likely to win, the Labor Party suffered an 8% swing against it (in first preferences). Only 3.7% of that swing went to the Greens. The Liberal Party, by comparison, got a 6% swing. Not a terribly impressive result considering all the media hype and the effort the Greens put into winning this seat.

Likewise, in Northcote the majority of the 5.6% swing against Labor went to the Liberals (4%) compared to the Greens (1.5%). They fared slightly better in Richmond, taking a 2% swing compared to the Liberal’s 2.1% swing.

In Brunswick, the Greens even suffered  had a 2.4% swing AGAINST them (compared to a 0.2% swing against the Liberals). This was due to two independents, including the Australian Sex Party who would naturally take candidates away from the Greens.

These were the four seats the Greens were most eager to win and they fared poorly in all of them. They stole primary votes from the Labor Party, sure, but that was to be expected in a state-wide drubbing where the Labor Party’s primary vote dropped in every electorate. In each and every seat, the Greens did not gain a higher swing than the Liberal Party in absolute terms.  And these are seats where the Liberal Party should be faring badly.

It all goes to show that there has not been a permanent structural shift in favour of the Greens. As I said before, all that has happened is that there is now a clear opportunity pathway that the Greens may seize but that can be a difficult path to follow and to stick to.


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  1. By NSW Election wrap-up « The Jackal’s Codex on 18 Mar 2011 at 8:29 pm

    […] commented in a previous blog (mainly here but also here) on the likelihood of the Greens sweeping NSW given their performance in Victoria. I stand by much […]

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