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#Disclaimer: I live near Bradfield (and in fact will be re-distributed back into the electorate at the next general elections). I have strong affiliations with the local ALP network in the electorate.

My predictions (prior to seeing any results):

Bradfield will be won outright without going to preferences. Higgins will go to preferences, but will be maintained with a strong lead by the Liberals. My reasoning: In Bradfield, the last election (when Rudd swept into power, and thus this is already a very low level of support for Libs) had first preferences of 60% when both Lib and ALP ran a candidate. There is no moderate candidate running for Bradfield, so where can marginal voters park their vote? (I am assuming that people will not do much research, so I am ignoring a swath of independent candidates). They have a simple choice: One Nation/CDP, Liberal, Green, Sex Party. The Greens are just extremists, they cannot snatch protest votes because people feel odd voting for them. Voting for them is also voting for economic devastation. As I have recently argued, it is also environmental destruction because they are institutionally incapable of protecting the environment. If the ALP had run a candidate, then they could have earned that 10% and the electorate would go to preferences.

To argue that it is possible for the Greens to win Bradfield is to misunderstand the thinking of the North Shore. We’re safe, we’re solid. We’re nice people – we won’t vote for One Nation or CDP in large numbers, but neither will we vote for the Greens who just don’t have a strong grasp of practicalities. We’re accountants, businessmen and bankers. We deal with practicalities and have an intuitive sense of the difficult choices facing politicians. Yes, all the factors for a swing against the Liberals are there. The loss of Nelson’s personal vote, the annoyance at having to vote at a special election, the Abbott extremism factor, the Liberal loss of leadership/implosion factor. But that is not enough to drive people to the Greens. To Labor maybe. But not the Greens.

Actual results (so far)

Higgins: 51-52% of first preferences (0.8% swing against)

Bradfield: 55-56% of first preferences (3% swing against)


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